I am a Postdoctoral Researcher at ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin). My research intersects the fields of Labor Economics, Political Economy, and Behavioral Economics. I am particularly interested in studying the role of preferences and beliefs in labor market contexts.
Before joining RFBerlin, I was a Postdoctoral Research Scholar at the Center for Political Economy, Columbia University. I received my PhD in Economics from the Berlin School of Economics and University of Potsdam in 2025.
Do Unions Shape Political Ideologies at Work? (with Johannes Matzat)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Conditionally Accepted.
Abstract: Labor unions influence economic outcomes not only through bargaining with employers over work contracts but also via political activities that can profoundly shape political systems. In unionized workplaces, they may mobilize and change the ideological positions of both unionizing workers and their non-unionizing management. In this paper, we analyze the workplace-level impact of unionization on workers' and managers' political campaign contributions. We link establishment-level union election data with transaction-level campaign contributions to federal and local candidates in the United States. Using a difference-in-differences design, validated through regression discontinuity tests and a novel instrumental variable approach, we find that unionization leads to a leftward shift of campaign contributions. Unionization increases support for Democrats relative to Republicans not only among workers but especially among managers, suggesting that managers converge toward workers' political preferences. The effects are stronger in settings with more cooperative union-employer interactions, such as when union elections are not contested by an unfair labor practice charge and result in a collective bargaining agreement.
Awards: 2nd place of the European Public Choice Society Wicksell Prize 2023
Coverd in The Hammer by Hamilton Nolan
The Accuracy of Job Seekers' Wage Expectations (with Marco Caliendo, Robert Mahlstedt, and Sophie Wagner)
Journal of Public Economics, 2026, 262, 105764, pp. 1-10.
Abstract: We study the accuracy of wage expectations among unemployed workers by comparing subjective beliefs to benchmark and realized wages using linked survey-administrative data. On average, jobseekers overestimate their reemployment wages, with optimism concentrated among those with low earnings potential. Beliefs are anchored to past wages, and inaccuracies persist over the course of unemployment and in response to stronger search incentives. Moreover, there is an asymmetry in belief formation: individuals who are likely to experience wage losses relative to their previous job are particularly rigid in adjusting their expectations. Finally, wage optimism predicts higher reservation wages, greater search intensity, and delayed reemployment.
A Tale of (Almost) 1001 Coefficients: Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the EU-Turkey Customs Union (with Mario Larch and Joschka Wanner)
Journal of Common Market Studies, 2021, 59(2), pp. 242-260.
Abstract: In view of the deferred start of negotiations for the modernization of the customs union between the EU and Turkey (CU-EUT), we looked back and analysed the ex post trade consequences of the CU-EUT. Employing up-to-date econometric best practices for regional integration agreements, we quantified both the total and the heterogeneous trade effects of the CU-EUT. In contrast with most previous studies, our results indicate that the CU-EUT made a significantly positive, large and robust impact, implying there was an additional increase in EU-Turkey trade in manufacturing by 55–65 per cent compared with that during the previously active Ankara Agreement. We also provide evidence that the CU-EUT significantly increased Turkey's trade with non-member countries of the CU-EUT. Additionally, a substantial heterogeneity in the CU-EUT effect was found across different industries as well as for each of its member countries and the direction of trade. We linked the heterogeneity of up to 911 coefficient estimates to the differences in initial trade costs and show that it cannot be ascribed to reductions in bilateral tariff rates.
Economic Shocks, Opportunity Costs, and the Supply of Politicians (with Laura Barros)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Revise and Resubmit.
Abstract: Adverse economic shocks are known to reshape voter behavior – the demand side of politics. Much less is known about their consequences for the supply side: how such shocks affect who becomes a politician. This paper examines how job losses influence individuals’ decisions to enter politics and the implications for political selection. Using administrative data linking political participation records to matched employer-employee data covering all formal workers in Brazil, and exploiting mass layoffs for causal identification, we find that job loss significantly increases the likelihood of joining a political party and running for local office. Layoff-induced candidates are positively selected on various competence measures, indicating that economic shocks can improve the quality of political entrants. The increase in candidacies is strongest among laid-off individuals with greater financial incentives from holding office and higher predicted income losses. A regression discontinuity design further shows that eligibility for unemployment benefits increases political entry. These results are consistent with a reduction in individuals’ opportunity costs – both in terms of reduced private-sector income and increased time resources – facilitating greater political engagement.
Perceptions of Race in the Labor Market (with Pedro C. Sant'Anna and Sulin Sardoschau)
Abstract: Empirical studies of racial disparities often treat race as fixed, though scholars across disciplines view it as fluid, context-dependent, and observer-specific. We study the determinants of racial perception in the labor market and its consequences for measured wage disparities. Using linked administrative data on 330,000 workers in Brazil (2003--2015), we observe three racial measures: employer-recorded race from payroll filings, self-identified race from electoral records, and phenotype from standardized photographs. Self-identified and employer-ascribed race diverge in over 20\% of cases, and employers disagree in their classification of the same worker. Estimating a ``race function'' that captures how employers map worker characteristics into racial categories, we find that phenotype matters, but so do productivity-relevant characteristics. University-educated workers are 10 pp more likely to be classified as White than workers with the same skin tone but no high school degree. Education ``whitens'' workers even conditional on self-declared race, all visual cues in the photographs, and firm-by-occupation fixed effects. Conventional wage-gap estimates based on recorded race or skin tone shrink by 80--90\% under a comprehensive set of controls, partly because those controls also shape racial classification. We introduce a perception-normalized disparity measure that attenuates far less, suggesting conventional estimates overstate how much productivity differences explain racial wage gaps.
Racial Peer Effects at Work: Evidence from Worker Deaths in Brazil (with Katharina Fietz)
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of working with same-race coworkers on individuals’ retention at firms. Using administrative employer-employee data from Brazil, the paper exploits unexpected deaths of workers from different racial groups as exogenous shocks to peer group composition. The findings show that a decrease in the non-white share of coworkers reduces the retention of non-white workers but does not affect the retention of white workers. The effects are driven by non-whites quitting and moving to new jobs with more peers of the same race than in their old jobs. The findings highlight how peer dynamics can contribute to racial segregation across workplaces.
Workplace Social Pressure and Union Collective Action (with Alex Hertel-Fernandez, Suresh Naidu, Adam Reich, and Patrick Youngblood)
The Value of Peers: Coworker Preferences in a Job Choice Experiment